South Africa, under the government of national unity (GNU), is clearly significantly better off than it would have been had the ANC continued to govern alone after the May elections.
However, the “GNUphoria” of the public and the business community is in danger of following the same path as the “Ramaphoria” of 2018 if the two aspects of governance that most directly and immediately affect ordinary citizens do not drastically improve soon: still-crumbling local governments and citizens’ safety.
Crime syndicates, chaotic and violent illegal mining operations, and the construction mafia delaying infrastructure development have mushroomed during Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency, even though formal state capture itself has largely been halted.
In the past year, kidnappings, extortion of businesses and mass shootings have suddenly increased significantly. One consequence is that tourism in the Eastern Cape is now shrinking rapidly.
New police minister Senzo Mchunu is by all accounts an improvement over his predecessor, Bheki Cele. One of the most significant developments since the election is the talks Mchunu is reportedly having with the private security industry to help combat crime. This makes sense, considering that there are four times more security guards than police officers in South Africa.
Still, the dysfunction of the police service and the severe shortage of experienced detectives are not issues that can be resolved within a few months.
The local level
On the other hand, city and town management and the provision of basic local services can be significantly improved, and quickly. Yet this is – still – not a priority for the ANC. In most ANC-controlled municipalities, it’s business as usual.
The events in Tshwane over the past two weeks are proof that the internal power and ideological struggles within the ANC are more important than service delivery and effective governance.
It is empirically provable that ousted DA mayor Cilliers Brink and his coalition made significant progress in governing the struggling capital over the past year, in financial discipline, debt collection and infrastructure.
And then, completely against the spirit of the GNU, the ANC and EFF voted him out, in collaboration with ActionSA. This week, he was replaced by Nasiphi Moya of ActionSA, who will have to appoint a management team consisting mostly of ANC and EFF members in the coming days.
ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba admitted in an interview with Rian van Heerden on kykNET on Tuesday evening that he did not leave the DA-led coalition because Brink’s administration performed poorly, but because the DA “stabbed him in the back” and secretly spoke with the ANC. It suggests that ActionSA, which received only 1.2% of the vote in the election, is now following the path of Cope, which fell from an initial 7% support to just 0.09% in the most recent elections.
Brink’s dismissal and Moya’s election were greeted with brutal triumphalism by ANC and EFF council members, the latter of whom had already warned that they were going to get rid of the city’s manager, Johann Mettler, after he reprimanded city employees for shouting and insulting Brink when he left the council chamber after his defeat. Mettler is widely regarded as an effective and experienced administrator. He previously made a significant difference in the administration of Nelson Mandela Bay before he was also ousted through politicking. His departure was followed by chaos.
It all means that the DA is now threatening to suspend its agreements with the ANC that are meant to stabilise the metros.
The events in Tshwane represent a victory for the anti-GNU faction in the ANC, which is at its strongest in Gauteng.
If you need a reminder of premier Panyaza Lesufi’s sentiments, they are on full view in this (sweetheart) interview with Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh, which you can watch here.
But Lesufi must hope and pray that his party and its partners in Tshwane will perform visibly better than Brink and his team, or the DA might become the largest party in the metro by 2026 – and in some of the other metros, too. The DA, with its track record of good governance in the Western Cape, generally performs better in local than in national elections.
The ANC’s alliance partners, Cosatu and the SACP, also regularly express their dissatisfaction with the inclusion of the DA in the GNU. SACP leader Solly Mapaila declared this week that the GNU means “our country is back in the hands of the Boers”.
Grounds for ‘GNUphoria’
However, Ramaphosa, with a second wind at his back, understands well that the GNU has the support of most South Africans. And this week, a poll by the Social Research Foundation, which was remarkably close to the mark before the May 29 election, showed that the anti-GNU forces are weakening while the three major parties in the GNU – the ANC, DA and IFP – have stronger support today than they did during the election.
According to the poll, the ANC’s support has risen from 40% on election day to 45%, the DA’s from 21.8% to 24%, and the IFP’s from 3.4% to 5%. Jacob Zuma’s MK Party’s support has dropped from 14.6% to 12%, and the EFF’s from 9.5% to 6%. The DA now reportedly has just as much black support as the EFF.
If the poll is correct and the trend continues, the paranoia in Luthuli House that causes defectors to be treated gently for fear they will defect to the MK Party will evaporate.
Among businesspeople, enthusiasm for the GNU is even greater. The rand is about 7% stronger, and the bond market 11% stronger than on election day, while the JSE’s all share index has jumped by almost 13%. Inflation has slowed, and the chances of further interest rate cuts in the coming months are good. Tourism is experiencing an unprecedented boom.
Delegations of government and business leaders to London and New York were received with positivity not seen in a long time. If it bears fruit and leads to investments, the dream of a 3% growth rate in the coming year is not far-fetched.
Market sentiment is not only based on the ANC’s acceptance of defeat in the election and the subsequent creation of the inclusive GNU, but also on an unprecedented collaboration between the private sector and the government. This has already borne noticeable fruits in the management of ports and rail transport and has helped ensure that there has been no load-shedding since March 26.
Yet this pact between business and the state will come to an end if the current GNU dissolves and is replaced by a coalition of the ANC, MK Party and EFF.
The Ramaphosa faction, the DA, the IFP, the Freedom Front Plus and the Patriotic Alliance fully understand the consequences this will have for them and the country, and they will bend over backwards to resolve disputes. The two immediate major stumbling blocks, the Basic Education Laws Amendment law and the National Health Insurance Act, will likely be accepted with minor amendments acceptable to all parties in the GNU.
Ultimately, it means that the GNU is likely safe until at least the end of 2027, when the ANC must choose new leadership – provided that it serves the public, that people begin to feel safer, and that basic services are finally delivered.
Max du Preez, the editor-in-chief of Vrye Weekblad and founding editor of the original magazine, is sharing this article with Currency as part of a regular content-sharing agreement. www.vryeweekblad.com
Cover image: Animation by Currency
